What options does Putin have?

If we take that the conflict must end quickly for Putin and that he cannot withdraw troops from Ukraine in order to stay in power, then he would seem to be backed into a corner.

In this video grab taken from a handout footage made available on February 24, 2022 on the official web site of the Russian President (kremlin.ru) Russian President Vladimir Putin addresses the nation at the Kremlin in Moscow [KREMLIN.RU/AFP] [ALJAZEERA.COM]

Context:

The “Special Military Operation” is in its 5^th day and if reported intelligence about Russian plans are to be believed, they have achieved none of their stated military objectives [TK1] for the invasion of Ukraine. Russia claimed this morning to have achieved air superiority over Ukraine, but has not been verified with evidence [TK2] . Russian forces have been met with fierce resistance across Ukraine, leading to heavy loses both in troops and equipment (by the 4^th day of the conflict, Ukraine claims to have inflicted 4300 casualties against the Russian forces [TK3] ). These loses have only been multiplied by the Russian military’s poor logistics, with troops running out of fuel and supply, and poor discipline within their ranks. Many of the Russian ground forces are conscripts and, in some cases, have deserted and left equipment behind. Compare this to a galvanized and mostly volunteer Ukrainian resistance and it’s hard to imagine this conflict will be over soon.

Ukraine is inflicting disastrous losses on the enemy.

The overall Russian losses in these 3,5 days ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/LR5Jb3dZMK
— MFA of Ukraine 🇺🇦 (@MFA_Ukraine) February 27, 2022

The EU, US, UK and other allies have introduced sanctions to punish and deter Putin including:[TK4] targeting the financial sector by freezing exchange of foreign held assets and by imminently excluding a number of Russian banks from the SWIFT payment system, which would “effectively block Russian export and imports”; the ban of Russian aircraft from entering foreign airspace, as well as the sale of components used in Russian made war planes and equipment; sanctions on Putin and his allies (oligarchs, all MPs in the Duma and other government officials), by freezing their foreign assets and limiting the amount of money held in bank accounts of Russian nationals. All of this is in an effort to make Putin listen to reason. Gold bullion held by the Russian Central Bank may yet insulate Russia from some of these sanctions.

Yesterday [TK5] , Putin put his nuclear deterrence forces on high alert. This could be seen two ways: As a ploy or threat before ceasefire talks, so that every use of force is on the table; or as a weakness, to need to threaten a country with nuclear weapons shows just how far the invasion plan has gone off the rails and how weak Putin may view his position if this war is not over quickly. For the latter Putin will be worried if he does not secure victory, at best he loses power, at worst he’s dead or in front of a war crimes tribunal.

So what are Putin’s options moving forward?

White Peace:
The Western powers and Ukraine give Putin room to climb down from conflict. It’s been speculated that since the Covid-19 pandemic started, Putin has shrunk his inner circle of advisors and allies, such that there are very few people to whom he listens or does not have authority over. If the sanctions start biting his allies, it may help Putin to hear some sense from them and deescalate this conflict. This requires the west and Ukraine to give him the ladder to climb down, and that is not a given, especially if it comes at the cost of Putin’s previous demands. The west would likely be willing to lift the most damaging sanctions after some time, in return for peace.
In the long run, any draw down without anything to show for it but the death toll would be seen as defeat in Moscow and likely lead to Putin losing power. If you believe a reason for this conflict is for Putin to garner more domestic support [TK6] , it makes this option very unlikely.

Force:
Russian forces continue with the invasion, using brutal means against civilians and command decapitation operations to bring the conflict to a swift end and take control of Ukraine (by whatever means they plan, puppet government or annexation). We can already see the brutality occurring in Kharkiv, by sieging the city and indiscriminately bombarding it with rocket artillery [TK7] including targeting civilian tower blocks today. Destroying/controlling energy supply and cutting communication lines will also increase the chances of a quicker victory, which we’ve seen with the bombing of the gas depot and pipeline south of Kiev [TK8] .

Attrition:
Any protracted conflict in Ukraine going on for months, will only weaken Putin’s position and leave him vulnerable to coup attempts from military or his close advisors who would see the increasing cost of the conflict and unrest of the Russian people. Already there have been protests [TK9] across Russia against the war. That sentiment can only increase as people begin questioning why they have lost their sons, brothers and husbands to such senseless violence. It would also make the Ukrainian populace even more opposed to Russian control as it will have suffered longer in a brutal war.
If attrition does result in victory, it could, however result in more powers (direct command of the military eg.) being given to Putin for him to manage the conflict directly.

“Consequences yet unseen”:
If we take that the conflict must end quickly for Putin and that he cannot draw back in order to stay in power, then he would seem to be backed into a corner. Swift victory or personal and national defeat. In this situation, if a quick end to the war cannot be achieved by conventional means, he may do so by the “consequences yet unseen”[TK10] , that was threatened in his televised address on the first day of the conflict. Many war-games for the last few decades have simulated a short conflict, ended by a “nuclear de-escalation”. This effectively means to use a nuclear weapon to force a surrender.

If a nuclear weapon was used against Ukraine, either on a military or civilian target, it would set a very dangerous precedent for the world. It may even be that sanctions against Russia and isolating it from the world is leading it down this path. On Russian television yesterday, the anchor said in context to the use of nuclear weapons “Why do we need a world if Russia is not in it?”.[TK11]

It’s unlikely that NATO and its allies would intervene beyond the most punitive sanctions, effectively isolating Russia completely (a 2019 Atlantic Council paper on countering Russian de-escalatory attacks advised to develop a similar low yield short range missile to deter Russian use, this cannot apply here as the missile has not been developed and it is not a direct attack on NATO [TK12] ). Putin may even lose his ally in China, which has so far remained somewhat neutral, but has in the past considered the threat or use of nuclear weapons a red line. (China has a No First Use policy, and has spoken out against using nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear armed state [TK13] ). However, by the use of his nuclear arsenal, Putin would achieve his objective, at a terrible cost to Ukraine and peace in the 21^st century.

Defeat:
If anything has been visible in the last several days, it has been the unbreakable will of the Ukrainian people to not fall under the hand of Putin. Russian forces may eventually prevail, but it will be a pyrrhic victory. The Ukrainian people will continue to fight for their freedom & for their nation, which they have proven beyond a doubt exists outside of a concept (as Russian media has been disputing the origins of Ukraine as a nation and people [TK14] ). If Ukraine is just a step on Putin’s path to reclaim the former Russian empire, Ukraine will surely be its undoing. Putin has made sure that the flame of Ukrainian resistance will not die out.